A new study published in Nature Geoscience, whose authors include Society members, looks at the slowdown in the rate of global warming and how it will affect temperatures in coming decades.
Scientists say the recent downturn in the rate of global warming will lead to lower temperature rises in the short-term.
Author Dr Alexander Otto, of the University of Oxford said "The most extreme projections are looking less likely than before?. Short-term rises are likely to be less than predicted, although long term rises are expected to follow predictions.
The decrease in the rate of warming has been a subject of study for some time now. This paper is the result of an international team of researchers looking at how the past decade might impact the long-term temperatures and shorter-term climate response.
In 2007 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported that short-term temperature rise would likely be 1-3C. However, this new study predicts between 0.9-2C, a figure that arises from only including the last decade's temperatures.
"The hottest of the models in the medium-term, they are actually looking less likely or inconsistent with the data from the last decade alone," added Dr Otto.
According to the paper, global average temperatures are predicted to rise about 20% more slowly than expected over the coming decades, but in the longer term, the authors say their work agrees with previous estimates, such as the IPCC's, that climate sensitivity is in the range of 2-4.5C
Source: http://www.rmets.org/energy-budget-constraints-climate-response-new-paper
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